Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc., (ROFFS?) continues to send out alerts to numerous people including legislators, emergency managers, and the fishing community to keep them informed of the changing nature of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and how it might impact the environment along with their fishing grounds. Our efforts (see http://www.roffs.com/deepwaterhorizon.html) are similar to our work after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (http://www.roffs.com/katrina.htm). These satellite images and sequential image analyses are derived from NASA (MODIS Aqua and Terra), NOAA (15, 16, 17, 18, and 19), and European (MERIS) satellites. Sequential image analysis is critical in allowing us to follow and determine the difference between the Mississippi River Plume and the surrounding oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
If we can map the changing conditions it will allow others to prepare with significant advance warning for the eventual landfall of this oil. It is much better to prevent the oil from reaching the coastal zones than cleaning it up after it negatively impacts the ecosystem and substantially affects the economy. The value of a clean coastal ecosystem is tremendous for everyone. Please keep in mind the as the oil travels through the Loop Current "conveyor belt" and southeastward towards the Florida Current and Gulf Stream it mixes with the water column and becomes weathered. Weathered oil is heavier and begins to sink in the water column thus having a greater impact on the bottom and the organisms (tuna, dolphin, marlin, sailfish, kingfish, sharks, wahoo, grouper, snapper, plankton, bait, etc.) that live within the water column.
Presently, the oil spill continues to spread westward toward Louisiana while at the same time spreading eastward towards Florida panhandle and southeastward towards several eddy features that are associated with the Loop Current. The shape and location of this oil spill is dynamic and is constantly changing and developing due to a combination of local currents and winds, as well as, larger scale features such as the Loop Current and Loop Current eddies associated with it. South of the South Pass, LA area we observed a large counter-clockwise rotating eddy (centered near 89°05'W & 27°35'N) that appears to be pulling a finger of oil south/southwestward along 87°50'W which was observed as far southward as 28°35'N yesterday (Monday).
It also now appears that some of the oil has reached the northeastern side of the eddy system associated with the Loop Current eddy centered near 87°15'W & 28°00'N. While there are dynamic ocean conditions in this area, it is likely that some of this oil will continue to travel southeastward reaching the east/northeastern edge of the Loop Current "conveyor belt". Please keep in mind that this is just a relatively small filament of the oil in proximity of the Loop Current influence. Each day the currents change and the winds and currents will be changing on a day-to-day basis as will the effects of the oil movements in relation to the Loop Current. When the oil is picked up by the Loop Current it will be transported by the Florida Current/Gulf Stream system to the Florida coastal zones including the Florida Keys, the east coast of Florida and many areas northward. It is possible that the oil will move as far as Cape Hatteras in the Gulf Stream.
Remember that there is an abundance of oil related to the spill and the first arrival of the oil may not be as devastating as the continued transport of the oil in the Florida Keys and east coast of Florida depending on how this oil spreads, blends with the water column, and weathers as it travels along with the Loop Current towards the Florida Current and Gulf Stream.
Note also that while the oil is warm underground the deeper ocean waters are relatively cold. By the time the oil reaches the surface it is cooler than the surrounding waters and we have been able to see the oil due to its cooler signature in both infrared and visible satellite imagery. As it warms on the surface it becomes indistinguishable from the infrared satellite imagery, but it remains observable using visible (RGB) satellite data. We remind everyone that subsurface oil and byproducts also present significant problems to the environment. Today, we are attaching an image of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the location of the oil spill that was derived using a combination of satellite imagery from Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. We are also attaching an image showing the eastern side of the Loop Current, and the Florida Current/Gulf Stream system off of the Florida Keys and the east coast of Florida that was derived from Tuesday morning's satellite imagery. We will continue to monitor the situation and update our analyses of the current ocean conditions on a daily basis when possible.
View the latest alert and maps from Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. at http://www.roffs.com/deepwaterhorizon.html or contact ROFFS? at (800) 677-7633 or via email at fish7@roffs.com.
